The topic of critical minerals is common in the news lately, especially when parsing the latest escalations in the U.S.-China trade war. When the U.S. government imposed high tariffs earlier this year on Chinese goods, China responded by placing export restrictions on certain crucial metals. One of those metals is tellurium, a rare element needed for cadmium-telluride (CdTe) thin-film solar panels, and which China controls 75% of global supply.
First Solar manufacturing in Ohio.
While silicon-based solar panels are overwhelmingly the dominant choice installed globally, thin-film makes up nearly one-quarter of U.S. manufacturing capacity, thanks to First Solar’s three manufacturing hubs in Ohio, Alabama and Louisiana. First Solar is the largest — and, essentially, the only — CdTe thin-film manufacturer in the world, with additional solar panel factories in India, Malaysia and Vietnam. The company deposits cadmium and telluride on glass to produce efficient solar panels predominantly used in the utility-scale market. Although not the largest market holder globally, First Solar’s CdTe solar panels are important to the U.S. market and make up a significant chunk of its installed utility-scale capacity.
That’s why export restrictions on one of CdTe thin-film’s key ingredients could pose problems for CdTe manufacturing if the trade war continues. Here’s what we know about the world’s supply of tellurium, and how First Solar is navigating the market.
Global supply of Te
Tellurium (Te) is a rare metallic chemical element first discovered in the late 1700s in a Transylvanian gold mine. The element is named after the Latin word tellus meaning “Earth,” and it is considered one of the rarest stable solid elements in the Earth’s crust. The United States designates certain elements as “critical” due to their high risk of supply chain disruption and importance to energy production, and Te is on the list along with silicon, lithium and cobalt. Te is typically found as a “telluride,” combined with other elements.
Copper mining at Kennecott and Bingham Canyon Mine in Utah. Credit: Rio Tinto
The world’s supply of Te is largely recovered during copper refining, and treatment of 1,000 tons (2 million lbs) of copper ore yields approximately 2.2 lbs of tellurium. The world’s supply of tellurium is mainly used in CdTe solar panels and other thermoelectric devices.
Since tellurium is recovered by mining copper, the Te supply for solar panels depends on a stable demand for copper. A 2022 article in the journal Resources, Conservation & Recycling estimated the maximum annual recovery of tellurium from copper refining at 1,930 metric tons. A U.S. Geological Survey report from January 2025 determined that 980 metric tons of Te was produced in 2024 — excluding U.S. production from two copper refineries that produce small amounts of Te.
A 1999 report prepared by World Industrial Minerals for NREL estimated that between 90 and 130 metric tons of tellurium is necessary for 1 GW of solar panels. Based on improved manufacturing efficiencies and processes over the last 25 years, the Resources, Conservation & Recycling article put those numbers closer to 57 metric tons needed for 1 GW of panels.
First Solar expects to have nearly 21 GW of global manufacturing capacity by the end of this year — 14 GW in the United States and 7 GW across Asia.
A review of that math: First Solar can make 21 GW of solar panels annually. The world only produced enough tellurium in 2024 to make 17.1 GW of solar panels. The maximum amount of tellurium the world could refine each year would produce 33.8 GW of solar panels — but China controls 75% of Te supply.
Could the solar industry be at risk of a Te shortfall?
A critical time for solar panel production
Although First Solar doesn’t appear to be slowing down its production levels — the company is sold out through 2028 — the scientific community has been anticipating a Te shortage for years.
A copper telluride filter cake at the Kennecott tellurium plant. Credit: Rio Tinto
A 2011 New Scientist article stated that the Dept. of Energy expected a Te supply shortfall by 2025. North American mineral company First Tellurium (formerly known as Deer Horn Capital) predicted in 2018 that changes in copper recovery and refining would affect tellurium availability, forcing refiners to look at gold and silver for worthwhile tellurides.
First Solar refrained from providing Solar Power World with comments on its telluride supply chains, but public announcements from the last few years do show that Te and other critical mineral supplies have been front-of-mind for “America’s Solar Company.”
An obvious big move is First Solar’s expanded relationship with First Tellurium, whose advisory board is peppered with former First Solar executives. First Tellurium is developing a project in British Columbia that is the only known property in North America with a resource for silver-gold-tellurium. The company is also exploring the prospect of tellurium in Colorado, where sampling at a site southwest of Denver found the highest tellurium grades in a nationwide exploration program.
Rio Tinto has mined copper from its Kennecott operation in Utah for over 120 years and began producing tellurium for First Solar there in 2022. The site likely contributes enough Te for less than 1 GW of First Solar panels annually, but any domestic supply is welcome.
First Solar has also long focused on solar panel recycling, which will help with available tellurium levels. The company has operated recycling plants at its manufacturing facilities since its first days, First Solar global recycling director Sukhwant Raju told Solar Power World in 2018.
“There is a finite amount of tellurium,” he said. “They wanted to make sure there was a way to recover the valuable stuff so it becomes sustainable growth for First Solar. It’s not just about being green, but how do we stay sustainable in the long-term?”
Rio Tinto installed First Solar panels outside its Utah copper mine. Credit: Rio Tinto
A First Solar environmental report from 10 years ago estimated that 12.5% of its Te supply came from recycled materials — a number that has undoubtedly increased in the last decade with improved recycling efforts and more recycled panels entering the circular economy. The company also says that 1 kg of tellurium-based semiconductors can be recycled 41 times — producing clean energy for over 1,200 years beyond its initial solar panel iteration.
So, could there be a Te shortage, especially if China restricts exports of the valuable metal? It’s possible there may be less “new” tellurium available for CdTe solar panels if mining efforts stay the same while demand for First Solar panels increases. But First Solar has been taking steps to avoid this dire situation, whether through new mining endeavors or improved recycling processes.
America’s top solar panel producer will probably be just fine.
