Flagship Energy’s Tejal Shah Energy Markets Update – 10th January 2024

The mild end to 2023 ended abruptly as colder weather hit the UK and Europe over the weekend. Temperatures are expected to remain below seasonal normal over a two-week horizon increasing demand consumption. However, the cold has done very little to support prices and you may be questioning why this is the case. Well, whilst there was some premium built at the end of last week, it’s all been pretty much eroded due to the strong supply we are seeing not only from near capacity flows from Norway and the UK but also sturdy LNG sendouts. With a flurry of cargoes expected over the next 10 days and berthing conditions now improved, LNG send outs in the UK have increased as well as Europe. Not only this but storage withdrawals have also increased as temperatures across Europe drop. Despite increased withdrawals storage remains well above the seasonal average with around 83% fullness, all of which points to a comfortable situation. The latest weather run is also not showing signs of concern. Temperatures in north-west Europe and Britain are expected to rise towards more normal levels for the time of year from the second half of January according to LSEG data. Unless this changes, the upside price risk is limited, and we may come out of winter unscathed.