Flagship Energy’s Tejal Shah Energy Markets Update – 11th December 2024

European and UK gas markets have eased with the NBP front month down 8% since the start of the month and with smaller losses further down the curve. This comes as supply has remained stable and revised weather forecasts showing milder temperatures from next week in both regions. LNG cargoes continue to arrive, and Norwegian exports remain robust albeit with some unplanned outages in the last couple of days. Despite the fast draw down on storage levels prices continue to ease. Could it possibly be investment funds unwinding their long positions? Prices on 3rd December peaked to their highest level in 13 months however have been gradually easing. The curve remains in backwardation with the spread between Summer-25 and Winter-25 narrowing from 3.5p/th to 1.2p/th in the UK. Those looking at longer dated periods may find future prices more attractive for some long-term price certainty. Elsewhere in the European and UK power markets the “Dunkelflaute” has caused day-ahead prices to increase substantially, however with wind generation expected to improve in the coming days and with nuclear reactors back from maintenance in the UK, prompt pricing should improve.