Flagship Energy’s Tejal Shah Energy Markets Update – 13th November 2024

Revised weather forecasts, low wind generation, concerns around storage depletion, no Ukrainian transit deal and ample profit taking have caused prices to trade above year-to-date highs this week. Temperatures are forecasted to drop below normal levels from next week, boosting heating demand and testing the market for the first time this winter. Temperatures for December have also been revised from normal levels to below, supporting the markets concern that storage levels, sitting at 93% fullness, will see higher levels of withdrawals quite early on, meaning more demand during the summer. This has consequently caused summer 25 prices to trade above winter 25. This is adding to an already volatile market, with continued concerns about geopolitical risks and global competition for LNG. At the time of writing gas markets are trying to ease however it appears the bulls are firmly in place. Elsewhere leaders are meeting in Baku for COP29.  PM Starmer has pledged 81% UK emissions cut by 2035 from 1990 levels, a target in line with the recommendations of the Climate Change Committee. He also backed Teesside and Merseyside carbon capture hubs while reiterating no new North Sea oil and gas licenses.