Topics explored include:
- Short term spike on mutiny news, but no fundamental changes to gas flows from Russia.
- Intra-day volatility has returned somewhat, driven by supply constraints, e.g. extension of maintenance at a gas processing facility in Norway, expected to be resolved in July. We’re not back to end-of-June price lows, but far from highs at time extension was announced.
- Gas storage good in Europe – stores 76% full.
- Inflation and high interest rates may have a marginal impact on forward pricing due to less demand for commodities.
- Coal generation still on track to be phased out, despite requirement for baseload power.
- Concerns about renewable energy supply chain: as with rest of energy sector, new wind perhaps more expressive than expected and CODs not attractive enough to drive new generation development. Skills gap may also need to be filled.
- The Dutch government has confirmed that the Groningen gas field will close in October, mainly due to earthquake issues in the area.
- It is expected that US LNG cargoes will increase over the next few months, which will help boost storage.
- With storage close to capacity, if we don’t see an increase in demand going into September and the weather is milder than expected, the markets will adjust to encourage demand or reduce production. However, further unplanned outages, extreme hot weather, and nuclear outages in France could affect this situation.
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