The Nature Conservancy and the University of Maryland have published their results following a study of the warming of the Amazon basin, including the Amazon rainforest, concluding it will have warmed by 1.4C by 2050.
Projected changes in the average annual temperature show consistent warming across the basin, with maximum increases ranging between + 1.1C and + 1.4C in the northern and central Brazilian Amazon.
In contrast, relatively smaller increases are projected in the Andean region and the Colombian Amazon, generally ranging between + 0.9C and + 1.0C.
This is said to reflect basin-wide amplification of temperature driven by global forcing (the measurement of how much Earth’s energy balance is thrown off when incoming energy from the sun differs from the outgoing heat radiated back into space).
Climate change is increasing global forcing, meaning more heat is being trapped in the Earth’s atmosphere than is escaping into space. Rising greenhouse gas levels (particularly CO₂ and methane) are the main drivers.
The findings of the study, although not concluded as of yet, show the Amazon’s vulnerability to climate forcing and therefore to climate change as a whole. It’s hydrologically reliant locations such as this that are likely suffer the quickest as a result of global warming.
