The world’s poorest countries could continue experiencing disproportionate climate impacts for decades after global greenhouse gas emissions reach net zero, new research suggests.
A study led by scientists at the University of Melbourne found temperatures in tropical regions have risen further beyond their historical range than in higher-latitude areas, including wealthier parts of Europe and North America.
The researchers said this inequality would not immediately reverse when emissions reach net zero and could take many decades to improve even if carbon dioxide was later removed from the atmosphere.
Speaking to The Guardian Dr Andrew King, Lead Researcher, said: “If we follow a path that is close to net zero, then the inequality we see in present day warming persists indefinitely.”
“The wealthier countries that have caused more of the problem are not those that are the most exposed, even beyond net zero. The regions that have not caused the warming are those that experience the most warming.”
They warned that the scale of future impacts will depend partly on how much greenhouse gas is released before the world reaches net zero.
Tropical ecosystems, including coral reefs, could remain particularly vulnerable because they have evolved within narrower temperature ranges.
Separate research commissioned by the UN refugee agency also warned climate change could increase the risk of statelessness through displacement caused by rising seas, floods and other climate-related disasters.
